基于GIS和普查平台的露天矿危险性评估——以桑植县为例
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1.湖南科技大学;2.湖南科技大学地球科学与空间信息工程学院

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Risk assessment of open pit mine based on GIS and census platform: a case study of Sangzhi County
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1.Hunan University of Science and Technology;2.Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, Hunan

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    摘要:

    为了弥补露天矿危险性评估中数据整合不足、方法单一等突出问题,基于GIS与普查平台协同的双通道多指标评估模型,解构"发生可能性-后果严重性"风险二元结构框架,形成一个包含历史事故(Q1)、灾害设防(Q3)、伤亡(M)和经济损失(E)四个维度赋值指标的体系,建立四级风险量化分级标准。以桑植县露天矿为研究对象,获知较可能发生露天矿危险性(Ⅲ等级)占比93.3%,自然灾害设防未满足要求;经济损失数值仅为4(≥10000元),唯有1座露天矿后果严重性达到Ⅱ级水平;最终露天矿危险性等级90%都未能同时满足无历史事故、自然灾害设防且满足要求、低伤亡人数与低经济损失。借助可视化图谱精准揭示风险空间异质性,评估结果与实际灾害记录吻合度达99%。融合多源异构数据和空间建模技术,显著提升风险识别精度与可靠性,为矿区构建"数据驱动-智能评估-空间决策"三位一体的新型防灾体系提供新技术范式,具有重要理论意义和实践价值。

    Abstract:

    In order to make up for the outstanding problems such as insufficient data integration and single methods in the risk assessment of open pit mines,a dual-channel multi-index assessment model based on GIS and census platform was developed to deconstruct the risk dual structure framework of "probability of occurrence - severity of consequences". A four-dimension evaluation index system including historical accidents (Q1), disaster defense (Q3), casualties (M) and economic losses (E) should be formed, and a four-level risk quantification and classification standard should be established. Taking the open pit mine of Sangzhi County as the research object, we know that 93.3% of the risk (Ⅲ grade) is more likely to occur in the open pit mine, and the protection against natural disasters does not meet the requirements. The value of economic loss was only 4 (≥¥10000), and only one open-pit mine reached the level of Ⅱ. In the end, 90% of the risk levels of open pit mines failed to meet the requirements of no historical accidents, natural disaster prevention, low casualties and low economic losses at the same time. The spatial heterogeneity of risk was accurately revealed with the help of visualization maps, and the evaluation results were 99% consistent with the actual disaster records. The integration of multi-source heterogeneous data and spatial modeling technology can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of risk identification, and provide a new technical paradigm for the construction of a new disaster prevention system of "data-driven, intelligent assessment and spatial decision-making" in mining areas, which has important theoretical significance and practical value.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-16
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-05
  • 录用日期:2025-03-07
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